A.Kubiliaus publikacijos Archives

A.KUBILIUS, K.MUSIENKO. ON EU RESPONSIBILITY TO PREVENT ENERGY CRISIS IN UKRAINE AND REGION

In the light of current gas supply difficulties in the EU amidst Gazprom’s manipulation as well as Russian military build-up near the Ukrainian border, the ongoing Nord Stream 2 debates and recent gas supply disruptions in Moldova, Andrius Kubilius and Kateryna Musienko laid out a non-paper on what the EU should do to ensure energy security of Ukraine, Moldova and CEE.

The paper discusses current situation with Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and Moldova, pointing out that if no strategic input from the European Union side is made, after 2024 the region will face enormous difficulties in securing its gas supplies when the existing gas transit contract between of Gazprom and Ukraine will expire.

To avoid further supply shocks the EU should be ready for a no-transit through Ukraine scenario if Nord Stream 2 will become operational or in the case of expiration of the gas transit contract in the 2024 case. Such non-transit scenario threatens not only Ukraine’s energy and geopolitical security, but also undermines Europe’s energy architecture.

The paper concludes that in the turbulent times of Russian weaponization of gas, energy security in the region must not be considered in purely commercial terms. Authors point-out that the EU can and must help both countries and the region to ensure greater independence from Russian gas by modernizing already existing infrastructure with additional interconnections in between Ukraine – Slovakia – Poland. Conversely, Europe can benefit from access to Ukrainian storage facilities – the largest in the region and locate near the EU-UA border.

The paper can be accessed here: PREVENTING ENERGY CRISIS IN UKRAINE AND REGION

Cover photo: ANDREY RUDAKOV/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The Future of Eastern Partnership Policy

The EU needs to have a very clear and simple understanding of the strategic goals of its neighborhood policy: it is better for the EU to export stability into those regions, than to import instability from them. When discussing about strategic autonomy of the EU, first of all we need to understand that EU’s strategic autonomy starts with a strategic responsibility for development and stability in the EU’s neighborhood. Development and stability in EU neighborhood can be achieved only if there is a possibility for the region to integrate itself with the EU. Since 1990, there isn’t a single example of a post-communist and post-totalitarian country in EU’s neighborhood, which was able to create its stability and prosperity on its own, without an integration towards the EU.

Read more in: The Future of EAP Policy (Policy paper for Stockholm Center of Eastern Europe Studies) by Andrius Kubilius